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主持人
Tonight. I want to start our conversation by asking the following. With the upcoming US election in 2020, by the end of this year, are we expected to witness a real potential change in the US foreign policy towards China, isn’t it a state policy or is it a policy of the President himself?
马凯硕
Well, the answer I’m going to give you is a very paradoxical one. On the one hand, the outcome of the elections could change nothing. On the other hand, it could change everything. So why do I give this paradoxical answer? Because it’s very, very clear that even though the United States, as we all know today, is a deeply divided society, where Americans cannot agree on anything. There’s only one thing they agree on: It’s time to stop China. So regardless of who’s the President, the mission to stop China will continue. And that policy has become deeply embedded in both the establishment, the society, and everyone seems to agree that this is the time for the United States to stop China. But at the same time, the reason why I say it could change everything is that if Trump wins, which is certainly possible, I think you can never tell what Trump is going to do. He could go to either extreme, right? It’s certain you carry on the contest against China. There’s no question about that at all, but how? And he could make things a lot worse, much, much worse. So therefore, we have to prepare ourselves for all possibilities. Certainly, if you come from small states like UAE or Singapore, as I do, you have to recognize that we, whether we like it or not, are now witnessing the largest geopolitical contest ever seen in human history. And I say the largest geopolitical contest because you’ve never had powers of the size and scale of the United States today, and China going head to head. And because this is such an immense geopolitical contest, it will rock the world, and it will affect all of us, no matter what we do, no matter where we live. And that’s why we need to understand this. And that’s why I think it’s very timely that you’re having this dialogue here in UAE.
主持人
So you say that all the Americans agree on one thing, which is to stop China. Does that mean the US has a strategy to stop China? Or is it more related to each president and his way of dealing with China?
马凯硕
Well, I’m glad you used the words “Grand strategy” because when I was writing my book, Has China Won, I had the privilege of having a very long one-on-one lunch with someone who was then clearly America’s greatest living strategic thinker, Henry Kissinger. It was a long lunch, one and a half to two hours. And at the end of the lunch, when I went back, I asked myself, what was the message Henry Kissinger was trying to get to me at this one-on-one lunch? And it became clear to me after I reflected on my conversation with him that the message he was telling me was that the biggest strategic mistake that the United States is making in this contest against China is that it has launched this contest without a strategy.
I thought, “Gosh, that’s a very profound thing to say,” so I had to write to him. I wrote to Henry Kissinger and I said, “Dear Henry, thank you for the lunch. Do you mind if I cite you saying this in my book?” And fortunately, he gave me his permission. So the fact that someone as senior and as well-informed as Henry Kissinger can say that there’s no strategy is a very important point and it’s also confirmed by the evidence. Right? Well, we know for sure that the United States will carry out actions in one way or another against China.
It’s not clear what the goal is. Is the goal to stop China’s economic development? It cannot be done. Is the goal to overthrow the Chinese Communist Party? It cannot be done. Is the goal to successfully contain and isolate China, like the way the United States successfully isolated and contained the Soviet Union? It can’t be done. So if it’s not clear what the goals are, people are asking, you’ve launched this contest. What is your end game? What would constitute a victory for you? And as you know, this has never been spelled out by anybody. Except once I think President Joe Biden in passing mentioned saying the Chinese aim to become number one and he said, “It ain’t gonna happen on my watch.” So basically what he’s saying, “I will not allow the Chinese economy to overtake the US economy while I’m still President.” So clearly if you look at all the actions that have been taken, the tariffs, the chip wall, they’re all designed in one way or another to slow down Chinese economic growth.
Because I think the United States has made in some ways a rational calculation that if and when the Chinese economy becomes number one, everything changes. And the very privileged position that the United States has had for, by the way, 130, 140 years as the number one power in the world, that can change. And here I want to emphasize that I do believe, and this is also a result of my conversation with Henry Kissinger, that there’s a wiser strategy for the United States. Instead of trying to stop China, the United States should try to work with China to create a world which has enough space for two big powers. And that was also, by the way, a strategy that the former President Bill Clinton suggested in a speech that he gave in the year 2003 and in my book Has China Won. I cite the speech he gave where he said, then said if the US is going to be number one forever, then we can keep on doing it. But he added a but. He said if he can conceive of a world where we are no longer number one, then surely it’s in the United States' interests to build multilateral institutions, multilateral processes, multilateral rules, multilateral norms that would in one way or another constrain China. And that would be a wiser strategy. So those of us who are friends of the US and friends of China should therefore be advocating to both of them, why don’t you adopt a wiser strategy that would be better for both of you and better for us instead of this rather destructive zero-sum game that is being played out now?
主持人
This led me to two questions actually. Like the first one, you mentioned China; they are trying to prevent China from being number one. How do you define number one in this world? Like, are we talking economically or politically? What exactly? And does China really want to be number one in this world?
马凯硕
That’s actually a very good question. The first definition of being number one in the world is definitely the economic dimension because if you have the largest economy that gives you a lot of weight. But I want to emphasize that what I haven’t mentioned so far is the complexity of the US-China contest and in some ways it’s hinted in your question, it’s a multidimensional contest. It’s being played out in economics, in the military dimension, in the political dimension, and in what Joseph Nye calls a soft power dimension. So it is actually conceivable for the United States to become, in nominal GDP terms, the number two power, but yet remain the number one most influential power in the world. It can do that.
I mean if it does adopt a wise strategy. So for example, I can tell you the most powerful weapon the United States has in the world is not the aircraft carriers, it’s not F35 jets, it’s the US dollar. Because the power of the US dollar means that you can impose sanctions. And you can take away 300 billion dollars from Russia. You can do that. So there are ways and means for the United States to remain the most influential power in the world even if its nominal GDP becomes number two. And in response to your specific question, does China want to become number one? The answer is yes and no. Why do I say yes and no? Yes, because they want to have the world’s largest economy because they know at the end of the day what will protect China is having the largest economy in the world.
But at the same time, the Chinese don’t have the same ambition that the United States does to run the world. But the United States, as you know, is present in all corners of the world intervening in this issue, intervening in that issue, taking care of this problem, taking care of that problem. The Chinese view is that we are 1.4 billion people, we have enough problems at home, we are taking care of our problems, the world will take care of itself. So in that sense, I don’t think the Chinese have a desire to step into the shoes of the United States in terms of its global involvement in various issues. So in that sense, I think it is actually possible therefore. And yeah, the reason I’m making this suggestion is that I’m looking for ways and means of creating a world where the United States and China can live together in peace without having to go head-to-head with each other.
主持人
So you just said like the United States doesn’t have any strategy we’ve got in China. Let’s go to the other side. How about the Chinese?Do they have a grant strategy in dealing with the US?
马凯硕
Well, as the weaker party, if they didn’t have a strategy, they’d be in deep trouble. I think out of necessity they have to have a strategy, and they do have one. So, for example, they ask themselves the obvious question: Why did the United States successfully defeat the Soviet Union? And we must say the one country that has studied the collapse of the Soviet Union more carefully than any country in the world is China because China knows that the dream of the United States is to make China the second Soviet Union and collapse. So how does China prevent a collapse? First point, the Soviet Union didn’t collapse because of external pressures. It collapsed because of internal weaknesses.
And so China realizes to make sure I survive, I must have a very strong dynamic economy and a strong dynamic society. And by the way, there was a very famous American thinker, George Kennan, who said way back in 1949, very presciently, he said at the end of the day, the outcome of the contest between the United States and the Soviet Union will depend on not our weapons and troops and all that. It will depend on which society has got greater spiritual vibrancy inside stronger. And so the United States society was far more dynamic than Soviet Union society, United States thrived, Soviet Union collapsed. So the Chinese know that the first priority is to make sure your economy is strong and your society is strong, which is why they are massively educating their people and growing their economy so that they don’t become a second Soviet Union.
And the second thing the Chinese learned from the collapse of the Soviet Union was that the United States succeeded because it managed to get a lot of the neighbors of the Soviet Union to join the containment policy. Everywhere, Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, both ends of the Soviet Union. So what did the Chinese do? The Chinese launched a pre-emptive strike against a containment policy by making sure that its neighbors depended on the Chinese economy. I give you a simple example, you know Singapore is part of Southeast Asia and we are part of an organization called ASEAN. And ASEAN started as a pro-American organization. In fact, when ASEAN was created on August 18, 1967, both the Soviet Union and China denounced the creation of ASEAN as a pro-American organization.
And it’s true, ASEAN was pro-American, pro-Western. And what was stunning was that even though ASEAN was pro-American, pro-Western and we had longer dialogues with the United States, European Union, Australia, Japan, everybody, none of our Western friends proposed a free trade agreement to ASEAN. The first country to propose a free trade agreement to ASEAN was China in 2001. And the impact of that China-ASEAN agreement was phenomenal. Because in the year 2000, and that’s when China proposed a free trade agreement, ASEAN trade with the United States was 135 billion. And our trade with China was only 40 billion.
So US trade was more than three and a half times of China’s trade. But as a result of the free trade agreement by 2022, even though ASEAN trade with the United States has gone from 135 to 415.5 billion, an increase of over three times. China’s trade with ASEAN went from 40 billion to $975 billion. Almost a trillion dollars. The world’s largest trading relationship in 2022. So that was then, there’s no way ASEAN can join a containment policy against its largest trading partner. It’s crazy. So that’s part of the Chinese strategy.
And that I mentioned at that one very quickly. You take the Belt and Road initiative that China has launched, building infrastructure in all corners of the world. What does that mean? Every country in the world says, “Oh, this infrastructure is good.” I need Chinese fast trains, I need Chinese highways. And then would you join a containment policy? You won’t. So that it shows you that they have systematically worked out a grand strategy. By the same time, I can tell you that the Chinese also have a lot of respect for the United States. They understand that the United States as a power is a remarkable power.
And so that challenges, even with all these strategies, they cannot underestimate what the United States can eventually do.
主持人
Professor, you have mentioned before, like,and even we haven’t a discussion like earlier today, that the US has 10 years to counter the rise of China. Why specifically 10 years?
马凯硕
Well, I think it’s all a matter of mathematics. And if the Chinese economy keeps growing at 5% a year for 10 years, I don’t have the math off the top of my head. Even if it doesn’t overtake, it comes very, very close. And the bigger China gets, the harder it is to stop it. And it’s quite clear that the Chinese have been quite ingenious in creating a long-term manufacturing strategy for China. And that manufacturing capability of China is now indispensable to the rest of the world. I mean, all of you, you open your kitchen cupboard, so whatever it is, take out the products, see how many of the components in any of the products came from China.
Just check, you’ll be amazed. This is not by accident. China wants to create deep dependence on China’s manufacturing sector. And you know, incidentally, even 5 to 10 years ago, 5 years ago, if you had asked anybody, “Could China ever join the competition in cars?” You would say no way, the Germans are so far ahead, Japanese are so far ahead, Koreans are far ahead, even the Americans are far ahead. But you know what, today, the Chinese have started from scratch and created an electric vehicle (EV) industry that is now frightening the pants off all car makers all over the world.
Because the Chinese manufacturing ecosystem on EVs is so amazing, even Elon Musk had first dismissed it, now he wouldn’t dare to dismiss it. But did this EV challenge from China emerge by accident? No, it is a part of the long-term strategy, and 5 years from now all over the world, you will see Chinese EVs. So as the world transforms and becomes more dependent on China, it narrows the options for the United States. I mean quite naturally, which is why there is in Washington DC a very strong sense of urgency. And by the way, you know,
if you look at some of the people who some of the Americans are like, given names Robert Lighthizer, Matt Pottinger, they’ll be coming back to advise Trump, they are the ones who are saying, “Hurry up, hurry up, we’re going to act fast.” So the sense of urgency in Washington DC is very real.
主持人
And so this leads me to the next question: what are the measures that the US could take in order to counter the rise of China? Are these measures going to differ from Biden to Trump?
马凯硕
Well, I think the best answer to your question, what should the United States do, was given by George Kennan in the remark I quoted earlier in 1949, where he said at the end of the day the outcome of the contest will depend on which country’s domestic society is stronger. And here, the challenge for the United States today, sadly, is that it has become a deeply divided society, right? And in my book, as you know, "Has China Won?" in chapter seven, I provide lots of empirical data, taken from American scholars, by the way, people like Paul Volcker, former head of the Fed, Joe Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate, Martin Wolf of the Financial Times, they provide data to show how the United States has essentially become a plutocracy. What is a plutocracy? A plutocracy is a society where public policy decisions are made not to benefit the majority at the bottom, but the top 1% or 2%. That’s what I’m saying. This is not original from me. American scholars have been saying all this, I’m just repeating what American scholars are saying. And the reason why it looks as though Trump is going to get elected is that the bottom 50% in America, the data shows this, haven’t seen an improvement in the standard of living for 30 or 40 years. In fact, the American middle class has diminished significantly. So therefore, if the United States wants to win the contest against China, it should rebuild the strength of its domestic society. That should be a priority. Because at the end of the day, you know, like in any athletic contest, you’re better off trying to win by running faster, rather than trying to kneecap your opponent. And that’s the best thing that the United States is going to do. But changing United States society and taking care of plutocracy is going to be a major challenge. And that is what has to be the answer for the United States.
主持人
That’s very informative. Let’s talk about the elections. And the US elections. And before we ask about that, we always like when we discuss the upcoming US elections, we only talk about either Biden or Trump. Is it really the case that the US's most dominant parties lack other options, rather than Biden or Trump?
马凯硕
Yeah. Well, you’re absolutely right. It’s quite puzzling because in terms of human talent, no society can beat the United States, frankly. Because you know, the United States' biggest strength is that it attracts the best brains, not just from 330 million people within the United States. It attracts the best brains from 8 billion people in the world. Right? And the United States is the only country, I think, where its largest corporations, like Google, are run by someone born in India, Sundar Pichai, and Microsoft is run by Satya Nadella, born in India. So you know, that’s quite remarkable. So there’s no other society that can match the talent of the United States. And frankly, I was a visiting fellow at UPenn in March, two months ago, three months ago. And when you go to American universities, the quality of mind of the researchers is dazzling, dazzling. You know, you meet people, you sit there, you’re great, oh, and you wonder, my God, some amazing research people are doing. And yet despite the fact that the United States has the best talent, the laboratories in the world, it produces two candidates like Trump and Biden. I mean, Biden, by the way, is a very nice guy. He would have been a great president 20 years ago, you know, clearly. But now at his age, it’s going to be a challenge for him. And I say that, I mean, I personally, if you ask me, most of us, and frankly, most of the rest of the world, would rather work for Joe Biden rather than Donald Trump, because Donald Trump would be disruptive, and Joe Biden would not be disruptive. But of course, we have no choice. We have to accept whoever is the president. And unfortunately, the prospects of Trump being elected seem to be getting stronger, sadly. And so I suspect it will be a Trump-Biden election. But what the results would be, I would say that one lesson we are learning is that in democratic societies, never predict the results of elections. Until three weeks ago, everybody was telling me that Prime Minister Modi would win big time, 350 to 400 seats. What did he get? 240. So you see, elections are very surprising. So I would say be ready for surprises in the US election, because there are too many factors that play in this contest.
主持人
Okay. Talking about Trump, given his previous policies in which he focused more on reducing overseas commitments, to what extent do you think he might seek to conclude a deal with China? Where this deal would involve ensuring that China be a part of the security burdens in the Middle East specifically.
马凯硕
Well, I think that’s, I think the important thing to tell you about Trump is that anything is possible. For example, I mean, the US and another example, let me switch for one second to Ukraine. Trump could either say, I’m going to go all the way. I’m going to defeat Putin. Now you pump up resources and go full scale ahead in Ukraine. Or he could do the exact opposite. He could say this war is of no interest to me, let the Europeans fight in this war. I’m walking away. I mean, his slogan is, “MAGA, make America great again.” So he’s not interested in the Ukraine war. And I do know for some strange reason he’s got this particular dislike for Ukraine. I don’t know why. It’s a complicated story. And he also has a strange dislike for the Europeans. And I asked an American friend of mine, why does he dislike the Europeans? And my friend gave me a very profound answer. He said, “All his life Donald Trump wanted to get accepted by society, especially elite American society.” Even though he was very wealthy, he was never accepted. He was an outsider. So when you’re an outsider, you develop this psychological, you know, angst and anger. So he has this anger against the American establishment. And in some ways, the Europeans also personify, you know, the old rich, their establishment. The Europeans look at him with disdain. So he said, “Okay, now I’ll teach you who’s boss.” So there is a very complicated relationship with Trump and the Europeans. So on Ukraine, he could do either thing. And similarly on China, he could go either way. But I think on China, Donald Trump has bought the main thesis that the United States cannot allow China to become number one. So he might possibly make a deal but I think the Chinese are not counting on it. The Chinese have to get ready for a more aggressive president. But again, having said that, the only thing you must know about Donald Trump is that he can do anything. Because when Donald Trump wakes up, actually he cannot predict what he is going to do for the rest of the day. He may change his mind because of something.
主持人
Thank you, Professor.And before we conclude the Professor, please, you have one minute only. If you have any final thoughts or insights, only one minute.
马凯硕
In one minute, I can promise you that you will not be bored in the next 10 years. The US-China contest will accelerate, so get ready. You will watch the greatest show in human history.
- 作者:TZ
- 链接:https://musingpages.com/politics/2024/07/09/kishore-mahbubani
- 声明:本文采用 CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 许可协议，转载请注明出处。
